When everyone is slowing down in terms of economic growth, India has not remained unimpacted, but is doing better and is in a relatively bright spot compared to other countries, a top International Monetary Fund (IMF) official said on Tuesday.

 

Just look at the global conjuncture right now, which is the overarching problem, IMF Director of Asia and Pacific Department, Krishna Srinivasan, said, adding that the growth was 'slowing across many parts of the world even as inflation is rising'.

 

'We expect countries accounting for 1/3 of the global economy to go into a recession this year or the next. And inflation is rampant. So that is the overarching story,' Srinivasan said.

 

The IMF on Tuesday in its World Economic Outlook projected a growth rate of 6.8 per cent in 2022 as compared to 8.7 per cent in 2021 for India.

 

The projection for 2023 slides down further to 6.1 per cent. More than a third of the global economy will contract in 2023, while the three largest economies -- the United States, the European Union, and China -- will continue to stall, it said.

 

'In short, the worst is yet to come, and for many people, 2023 will feel like a recession,' said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the Economic Counsellor and the Director of Research of the IMF, in his forward to the WEO released during the annual meeting of the IMF and the World Bank.

 

Driving prospects down

Beyond that, there are three underlying headwinds. One, of course, is financial conditions tightening because central banks and Asian economies are tightening to address inflation.

 

The second is Ukraine, a war which has led to an increase in food and commodity prices, widening current account deficits. And the third is in the region itself, China is slowing down, he observed.

 

A combination of these factors is driving prospects down across many parts of Asia including India.

 

India is having an effect with external demand coming down. Also, the country’s inflation has been rising.

 

'What the RBI has done is that it's tightened monetary policy. Rightfully so. They have been in a proactive tightening monetary policy,' he said.

 

'Now, what that means is there has been a bearing on domestic demand. You have inflation, which affects consumer demand, and when you try to address inflation, that by tightening monetary policy, it will bear upon investment. And so, both for both reasons, you see some slowing in India, and that's why we revised it to 6.8 per cent this year and to 6.1 per cent the next year,' Srinivasan added.

 

Observing that the Indian government has an ambitious plan for CAPEX, Srinivasan said the country needed to continue with it because that would give a boost to domestic demand.

 

Leap forward

The Indian government, he said, is addressing the impact of inflation on the poor and the vulnerable.

 

'They have cut excise taxes, which is across the board. That is good and bad. It is good in the sense that it provides relief on the price side, but it's not well-targeted. In the context of limited fiscal space, you want these measures that alleviate inflation impact to be more targeted. We would want more targeted support for the poor and vulnerable. The free rations are one,' he said.

 

'What we've seen is in the initial phase of the crisis, you had capital going out of India, and then now it's coming back, trying to attract equity capital in FDI, that would be very good. That will boost things,' he said.

 

India has done phenomenally on digitalisation, Srinivasan said. 'If you look at the digital public infrastructure in India, it's quite amazing. You can leverage digitalisation to address many things, which both short term and long term to have, to boost growth, both in the near term and over the longer term,' he said.

 

Dealing with Covid

India took a hit to the chin during the delta wave of Covid-19, he said. But since then, they've come back very strongly in terms of vaccinating a large swath of the population.

 

'About 70 per cent of the population is fully vaccinated. Vaccinating a country with 1.4 billion people is no easy task. And they've done a very good job there. They've also been very judicious in employing the resources to support employment, health care, and the poor and the vulnerable. By tackling the pandemic head-on, they have mitigated what could be an important headwind,' he said.

 

While the zero Covid strategy has been a drag on the Chinese economy, for India, the pandemic has had less of a headwind because they've addressed it through vaccination.

 

'They have used their resources judiciously. Given the global context of where growth is slowing, and inflation is rising, in that context, India has done well, to protect growth. Now, going forward, it is not gonna be easy, because, to continue the growth prospects, India has to continue with this ambitious CAPEX plan,' Srinivasan said.

 

This, he said will generate a multiplier effect private sector, which can generate employment. During the pandemic, people lost jobs mainly women, and youth.

 

'You have to create an environment where those jobs are more. So going back to the CAPEX plans, which kind of brings in the private sector will give a boost to the economy. In that sense, I think it's a good thing,' he said.

 

India is facing large pressures on the external account because oil prices have gone up. Current account deficits are widening.

 

Srinivasan said there are certain reforms to be adopted from a longer-term perspective: agricultural reform, land reform, labour reform.

 

'They did go ahead with agricultural reform. It didn't kind of pan out, same thing with land reform. But these need to continue. You have to keep the momentum going all that will improve your business environment,' he said.

The UAE expects trade with India to cross USD 100 billion-mark over the next 2-3 years, boosted by the comprehensive economic partnership agreement. The Indo-UAE trade stood at USD 73 billion in FY22, which got a major fillip since the two nations signed the comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA) on May 1, 2022.

 

Between FY21 and FY22, the overall trade rose 68 per cent to USD 73 billion, after declining for two years. But the trend has reversed since the signing of CEPA.

 

The bilateral trade has increased markedly with total value of non-oil trade at USD 29.5 billion in first six months of 2022, growing 22 per cent over the same period in 2021.

 

Non-oil exports too rose 31 per cent with total value reaching USD 2.7 billion between May and June, junior foreign trade minister of the UAE, Thani Bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, told the Indo-UAE economic forum organized by industry lobby CII here.

 

'Though we've set a five-year deadline to take the UAE-India bilateral trade to USD 100 billion from what it is now, going by the way trade has been growing since the signing of the CEPA, I am confident that we'll achieve the target much earlier, say over the next two-three years,' Zeyoudi told PTI later during an interaction.

 

The minister said trade is still dominated by oil, which constitutes 62 per cent of the overall trade value and only 38 per cent are non-oil trade now. But he expressed hope that CEPA will change this over the years.

 

The minister also said while non-oil trade balance is still in favour of India by a whisker, overall India has a trade deficit of USD 17 billion in FY22, led vastly by large oil imports.

 

During the first half of 2022, bilateral non-oil trade grew 22 per cent to USD 29.5 billion, the minister said.

 

The UAE minister also said, his country's cumulative investments in India is over USD 20 billion, of which USD 14.4 billion are FDI, making the UAE the eighth largest FDI source for India.

 

In April-June this year, FDI flows into the country from the UAE stood at USD 2.14 billion. Zeyoudi also said his country is open to invest in the now-stalled West Coast Refinery if India revives the 60-million tonne refinery involving over Rs 3 lakh crore investment.

 

Addressing another session at the same forum, joint secretary in the commerce ministry Srikar Reddy said, since the CEPA, overall exports from the country to the UAE rose 16 per cent to USD 10.46 billion from USD 9 billion between May and August, which is commendable given the decline in overall global trade during the period.

 

Reddy also said exports under the CEPA have been outpacing the country's overall exports by 5:1. On the other hand, non-oil exports to the UAE grew 14 per cent.

 

Reddy said non-oil trade is still dominated by gems & jewellery which constitutes around a third of the total trade, which has grown by 33 per cent to USD 1.4 billion.

 

Companies from the UAE that have invested in India are Mubadala, DP World, Sharaf Group, Lulu Group, Emaar Properties, RAK Ceramics.

 

Companies from India that have invested in the UAE are ONGC & PetroResources, Tata Motors, Larsen & Tourbo Middle East, Oberoi Group, Zuari Agro Chemicals, Essar Steel Manufacturing Company.

 

India has so far signed 13 free trade agreements (FTAs) with its trading partners, including those with members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), in a bid to enhance international trade relations. 

 

ASEAN is one of the focal regions for India. The two sides shared many similarities in terms of culture and religion. The trade and investment ties between India and ASEAN have also grown over the past decade thanks to India's Look East Policy. Two-way trade rose to 110.4 billion USD in the 2021-2022 thanks to a number of key agreements signed between the two sides.

 

India and ASEAN signed the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation in 2003 at the second ASEAN – India Summit, which has created a premise for the two sides to negotiate and sign FTAs on goods, services and investment, including the ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA) and the ASEAN-India trade agreements in investment and services. 

 

Since trade and investment are priority areas of economic cooperation between ASEAN and India, AITIGA, which was signed in 2009, has continually been at the forefront of engagement. 

 

Since AITIGA took effect in January 2010, trade between ASEAN and India has increased remarkably, with an increase of 23% in exports and 55% in imports over the past decade. Imports have increased particularly from Cambodia, Singapore, and Vietnam

The Punjab government on Monday said it will establish horticulture estates in Ferozepur, Gurdaspur, Faridkot and Ludhiana districts.

 

Equipped with the latest technological information and machinery, these estates will provide facilities to horticulturists to help them produce high quality fruits and reduce their cost of production.

 

It was stated by Horticulture Minister Fauja Singh Sarari during a meeting with his department officials here, according to an official release.

 

He instructed the officials to bring maximum area under horticulture crops by motivating farmers to come out of the current wheat-paddy crop cycle.

 

He also asked the horticulture officials to create awareness to save ground water, which is continuously depleting in Punjab.

 

The minister also asked the officers to promote nurseries for palm trees and other ornamental plants in Punjab as these plants sell at huge premiums and can be a profitable venture for the farmers.

 

Sarari also said Punjab is the largest producer of potato seed in the country and keeping in view the future demand, an aeroponic unit and tissue culture lab will be established in Jalandhar with an investment of Rs.10 crore.

National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) has sanctioned an agri-export facilitation centre (AEFC) at Jodhpur under its Farm Sector Promotion Fund to create an ecosystem and facilitate export of agri commodities from Rajasthan. 

 

AEFC will be implemented by South Asia Biotechnology Centre, Jodhpur in collaboration with local organization, FPOs, aggregators, processors and agri exporters from Rajasthan. The AEFC was inaugurated by Shri Baiju N Kurup, Chief General Manager of NABARD, Rajasthan RO, Jaipur in the presence of Shri B. K. Tripathy, General Manager of NABARD, Rajasthan RO, Jaipur and Shri Manish Manda, District Development Manager (DDM), Jodhpur; Dr MY Honnur, Deputy Director of the Spices Board of India; Drs D Kumar, Bhagirath Choudhary and Neha Bulchandani of South Asia Biotechnology Centre, Jodhpur on 07 October 2022 at Jodhpur.

 

'AEFC is set up to create ‘one stop shop’ to discuss the potential of agriculture export, make a knowledge repository, develop export protocols, liaise with different export promotion bodies and enable FPOs, processors and exporters to navigate the complexity in agri export from Rajasthan', said Sh Baiju N Kurup, Chief General Manager of National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD). Echoing the sentiments, Bhagirath Choudhary of South Asia Biotechnology Centre appreciated the initiative on agri-export as Rajasthan offers tremendous opportunity in high value spices, millets, guar gum, edible oilseeds and aromatic and medical plants. 'AEFC will incubate potential agri- entrepreneurs, hand hold FPOs and agri exporters and facilitate business opportunities in conjunction with the spices Board, APEDA and RSAMB to achieve the objectives under Agriculture Export Policy 2018 and Rajasthan Agro-processing, Agri-business & Agri-export Promotion Policy, 2019', said Choudhary.

The Asia Pacific food antioxidants market size is set to register a significant growth during the forecast timeframe, as consumers have become more health-conscious, according to a recent study from market research firm Graphical Research. The growing popularity of ready meals and packaged foods and subsequent expansion of the food processing sector is expected to further propel this demand in the upcoming years taking the market size to US$1.15 billion by 2026.

 

Antioxidants, which function as radical scavengers, help prevent cell damage are known to boost immunity significantly. Dieticians and physicians often suggest foods containing natural antioxidants which can prevent the risk of a range of health problems including heart diseases, diabetes, and cancer.

 

A large geriatric population base in China, Japan, India, and South Korea and widespread occurrence of these conditions will certainly encourage the consumption of health, nutrition-rich processed foods. Following are some of the major factors influencing future developments in the industry.

    •

    • Growing prominence of synthetic antioxidants

Antioxidants can be natural or synthetic. Natural antioxidants such as rosemary, vitamin C, vitamin E, and polyphenols are generally derived from plants and animals. These naturally occurring compounds are known to possess excellent anti-inflammatory, anti-aging, anti-atherosclerosis, and anti-cancer characteristics. They are extensively used in food additives, functional foods, and pharmaceuticals.

 

On the other hand, synthetic antioxidants are increasingly gaining traction and their demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of over 2.5% through 2026. These are chemically synthesised compounds which are mainly used as food preservatives to prevent lipid oxidation. They prevent the formation of free radicals during oxidation and overcome the challenges of natural antioxidants such as inherent stability.

    •

    • Increasing use in food processing applications

Asia Pacific food antioxidants market size from processed food application was valued at more than US$190 million in 2019 and will continue to record substantial gains in the future. Processed foods are added with preservatives and antioxidants during manufacturing to enhance their shelf life. Most breakfast cereals serve as a rich source of polyphenols due to the presence of whole grains. BHT and BHA are typically added to cereals, butter, and dehydrated potatoes to increase their stability and shelf life.

 

Drying, freezing, and canning are among the commonly used food processing methods. During these processes, oxygen reacts with antioxidants instead of the packaged food, preventing spoilage due to oxidation. Constantly changing diet patterns and eating habits of consumers will certainly provide manufacturers with promising opportunities.

    •

    • Expanding processed food industry in Japan

Regional trends can be largely associated with a high degree of consumer awareness regarding the use of ingredients in processed foods. With increased household income levels, Japanese consumers are spending excessively on good-quality food products, which has led to numerous innovations in the processed food sector. Japan food antioxidants market size was estimated to be worth US$210 million in 2019 and will witness notable growth in the coming years.

 

An increasing urban population, expanding elderly population base, and the subsequent rise in numerous health conditions is encouraging consumers towards incorporating healthy diets. Majority of people are focusing on adoption of novel products containing natural ingredients. Both natural and synthetic antioxidants are anticipated to witness a strong demand in processed foods and beverages products such as bakery, dairy and meat products.

 

Growing number of manufacturing plants in the Asia Pacific region owing to a favourable business environment and supportive government initiatives such as 'Made in China 2025' and 'Make in India' will complement the regional outlook significantly.

 

BASF SE, DuPont, Givaudan SA, and Eastman Chemical are few prominent names in the Asia Pacific food antioxidants market. In December 2019, BASF had set up a new production facility in Shanghai, China, for large-scale synthesis of the antioxidants Irgafos 168 and Irganox 1076. 

Customs authorities in Chennai have come forward to clear rice shipments pending the results of samples drawn from the consignments provided exporters furnish bond or bank guarantees to the tune of 20 per cent of the free-on-board (f.o.b) value of the cereal.

 

In a notification issued on October 7, the Customs Department said the offer was being made as part of trade facilitation measures on request from exporters and their associations in case of wherein samples of rice have been drawn their lab results were awaited.

 

‘Not helpful’

The Customs Department on September 22 came out with a notification saying that authorities will draw samples of rice export consignments as part of government efforts to ensure it was not shipped out in the garb of parboiled or basmati rice.

 

However, a Chennai-based exporter said it would not help them since they have to pay almost 30 per cent of the consignment f.o.b. value as a guarantee. 

 

A trading source said problems have cropped up with regard to shipments of “idli” rice, which actually is parboiled but its white colour raises suspicion of officials since parboiled is a bit yellowish.

 

Problems continue

BV Krishna Rao, President, The Rice Exporters Association, said exporters were still facing problems with rice shipments in transit as also broken rice for which letters of credit were opened before the September 9 curbs by the Government came into force.

 

On September 8, the Centre issued a notification imposing a 20 per cent duty on non-basmati white rice shipments, while banning the export of fully broken rice. Basmati and parboiled rice have been exempt from the curbs. 

 

Options for shippers

The Customs notification said if an exporter opts for clearing the shipment under the bond or bank guarantee (BG)  scheme, the exporter can opt for it at the time of assessment and submit the bond or BG as quantified by the assessment group, which will verify it and mention it in the document. This can then be used to allow the shed officer to permit the shipment.

 

If the shipping bill is not marked for assessment and the exporter submits the bond or BG, then the shed officer can send it for assessment before the consignment is cleared for shipment. 

 

The Centre imposed the curbs on exports as part of its efforts to tame rising prices and to tackle any problem arising out of low coverage of paddy during the kharif season. The other reason for the curbs is that stocks in the central pool dropped to a three-year low. 

Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) hosted Conference on B20 Indonesia Global Dialogue in partnership with Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) in New Delhi today, with the aim of aligning the perspectives of Indian industry with the policy recommendations of B20 Indonesia.  This conference would set tone for the deliberations to ensure that the Indian perspectives are well represented in the policy recommendation of B20 Indonesia.

 

Business 20 (B20), formed in 2010, is the official G20 dialogue forum with the global business community. B20 aims to deliver concrete actionable policy recommendations on the priorities by each rotating presidency to spur economic growth and development.

 

More than 20 business delegates from Indonesia attended the conference including Mr. M ArsjadRasjid P.M, Chairman, Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KADIN), Ms. ShintaWidjajaKamdani, Chair, B20 Indonesia, apart from H.E. Ina H. Krishnamurthi, Indonesian Ambassador to India attended the Conference.

 

The Indian Government side was represented by Shri Amitabh Kant, India’s Sherpa to G20, Shri Anurag Jain, Secretary, Department of Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade and other senior officers from DPIIT and other concerned Ministries.

 

Indian industry was represented by many leaders including; Shri Chandrajit Banerjee, DG, CII; Dr.Naushad Forbes, Past President, Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) and Shri Deepak Bagla, MD& CEO, Invest India

 

After Opening Plenary and introductory remarks, Dialogues were held on (i)Trade & Investment (ii) Energy, Sustainability & Climate (iii) Digitisation and (iv) Finance and Infrastructure wherein perspectives from B20 Indonesia was followed by perspectives from Indian Industry and Government of India.

 

G 20 is a group of 19 Countries + EU, together representing around 85% of global GDP, 75% of global trade, and 60% of the world’s population. The members of the G20 are: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, and the European Union. Indonesia is currently holding the Presidency of G20. 

 

The dialogue will pave the way to the B20 final summit that will take place on 13-14 November 2022 at Indonesia.

The government’s agri-export promotion body Agriculture and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) is planning to take an Indian delegation of exporters, start-ups and farmer-producer organisations (FPOs) to 17 major international events for the promotion of millets and its value-added products during 2023, which has been declared by the United Nations as International Year of Millets.

 

'This is a good opportunity to boost our exports as India has very distinctive traditional varieties of millets which are loved by health-conscious people. However, a lot of promotion is required for increasing shipments of value-added millet products,' APEDA Chairman M Angamuthu said. He, however, declined to comment on the promotional plan.

 

Negligible export share

APEDA has set a target to raise the export of millets and their value-added products to $100 million by 2023-24 from $64.28 million in 2021-22.

 

The export of such products was $59.75 million in 2020-21, in which the share of value-added products was negligible. Though India is the top producer of millets, its export share is less than 15 per cent in the global trade of $470 million in 2021.

 

'India’s share in export of millets is at fifth position in the world now and we are confident to be among the top three countries in next two years,' he added.

 

Finance Minister asks start-ups to explore and innovate millet processing

Calls for value addition in millet processing, so that the exports fetch higher rates

 

With the promotion of millets in the international events, more demand and awareness will be generated on Indian millets, Angamuthu said.

 

Sources said APEDA plans to participate in 17 fairs—3 in the US, 5 in Europe, 7 in Asia and one each in Australia and Africa starting from October 15, 2022 at SIAL Food, Paris.

 

Show-casing to importers

Indian embassies and high commissions in UAE, Nepal, Saudi Arabia, Oman, UK, US, Indonesia, Belgium, Japan, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands have been asked by the government to make more efforts for promotion of Indian millets since these countries are leading importers, sources said.

 

'Potential importers will be invited to India where we will show case various millet-based products and facilitate B2B meetings. The first such meeting is likely to be held in the first week of December in Delhi,' Angamuthu said.

Union Minister for Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal attended a roundtable conference of investors in Mumbai today. The 4th NICDC Investors' Roundtable Conference was organized by Maharashtra Industrial Township Limited (MITL).

 

Making a strong pitch for Industrial Smart Cities like Aurangabad Industrial City (AURIC), Union Commerce Minister said 'It makes eminent business sense to locate to modern industrial townships like AURIC. These industrial smart cities have been master-planned to international standards. Industries coming to these nodes will power the manufacturing sector in the country'.

 

MITL’s flagship industrial area, the Aurangabad Industrial City or AURIC, is one of the most well-developed Industrial Smart Cities in the world. With dedicated residential spaces and investment of over Rs. 7,000 crores, it is a beacon of industrial development in the Marathwada region. AURIC has planned to develop a MITRA Textile Park with the support of Ministry of Textiles under the PM MITRA Scheme, a Mega Food Park and an International Convention Centre there, making it a truly global investment destination.

 

Encouraging investors, the Minister said the Government is committed to keep logistics costs down and increase Ease of Doing Business. He assured that the Government will do everything to address the requirements of various stakeholders.

 

Speaking about the National Single Window System for Business Approvals, the Union Minister said that Government’s aim behind Single Window System is to ensure that a person sitting anywhere in the world should be able to get all approvals to locate their business in India, buy land or set up business in the country, with a click of a button.

National Industrial Corridor Development Corporation (NICDC) is a Special Purpose Vehicle that envisages to establish, promote and facilitate development of the National Industrial Corridor Development Programme, India’s most ambitious infrastructure programme aiming to develop new industrial cities as 'smart cities' and converging next generation technologies across infrastructure sectors. The programme is aimed at providing impetus to planned urbanization in India with manufacturing as the key driver.

 

Union Minister said the Central and state governments are working hand in hand to transform the country. Asserting his confidence in Maharashtra, he said  'I am certain that under the current leadership, Maharashtra will once again prove itself to be the most industrialized, progressive and fastest growing state in the country.'

Reiterating the significance of the infrastructure sector for economy, the Union Minister said that there are various examples wherein infrastructure has created power and economy and brought alive new opportunities. 'We have nearly ?111 Lakh crore National Infrastructure Pipeline and a large part of it is in Maharashtra. The metro project, the trans-harbour link, the coastal road project and the expansion of express ways are landmark projects that will benefit Maharashtra in a big way'.

 

The Minister said that Macroeconomic fundamentals are strong, infrastructure is being built at a rapid pace and India is the destination the world is looking up to. 'Together we can make India the future of the world'.

 

Deputy Chief Minister of Maharashtra, Devendra Fadnavis said that Maharashtra aspires to be a trillion dollar economy in next 6 - 7 years. Addressing the investors, Devendra Fadnavis said: 'We have tailor-made package of incentives for investors. We are also addressing the special needs of the industry.'

 

MITL, formerly known as Aurangabad Industrial Township Limited, is a joint venture between Government of India and Government of Maharashtra.