Corn imports and consumption are forecast to increase in Japan for marketing years 2023-24 and 2024-25 as the country’s poultry layer population recovers from outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and feed demand rises while global prices soften, according to the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

 

In its Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report, the FAS said it anticipates robust import demand for corn in both marketing years as the country is highly dependent on imported ingredients to produce formula feed. 

 

Total corn consumption is seen at 15.32 million tonnes in 2023-24 and 15.35 million tonnes in 2024-25, due to slight increases in food, seed and industrial (FSI) use. Each marketing year, feed and residual use is pegged at 12 million tonnes. Corn is the primary ingredient for formula feed, accounting for a little less than 50% of the inputs for the estimated 24 million tonnes of total formula feed production in Japan. 

 

To meet corn demand, Japan is expected to import 15.3 million tonnes in 2023-24 and 15.35 million tonnes the following marketing year. Japan imports corn predominantly from the United States and Brazil and switches between them seasonally based on prices.

 

Meanwhile, the FAS forecasts food wheat and rice consumption to slightly decrease in 2023-24 and 2024-25 as Japan’s population declines and the shift in age demographics changes consumption trends. Furthermore, inflation fueled by the weak Japanese yen has caused consumers to reduce food purchases. 

 

FSI consumption for wheat in 2024-25 is projected at 5.45 million tonnes, down 0.4% from the 2023-24 estimate, and total demand is seen at 6.1 million tonnes. Production will increase slightly in 2024-25 to 1.16 million tonnes, up slightly from 1.14 million tonnes the previous year.

 

'While per capita wheat consumption has been stable in recent years averaging at slightly over 30 kilograms per year, per capita wheat consumption will face a moderate downward trend as the population ages and decreases its carbohydrate intake,' the FAS said.

 

Rice production is anticipated to fall 1% to 7.2 million tonnes in 2024-25, which continues a trend of the past decade caused primarily by the exit of small-scale farms, declining table rice demand and aging farmers and fewer younger farmers. 

 

Rice consumption for 2024-25 is forecast at 7.95 million tonnes, which has been fairly stable in recent years. Imports are expected to reach 685,000 tonnes in 2024-25, down slightly from 688,000 tonnes from a year ago.

Amid concern over likely fall in mandi prices in view of extension of onion export ban, the government on Tuesday assured farmers that it will start procurement of 5 lakh tonnes of rabi onion in next 2-3 days to protect their interest.

 

Last week, the commerce ministry extended the ban on onion export till further orders. The ban on onion shipment was valid till March 31.

 

'We want to assure farmers that their concern will be taken care of. ...We will begin procurement of 5 lakh tonne of rabi (winter) crop in the next 2-3 days for maintaining a buffer stock,' Consumer Affairs Secretary Rohit Kumar Singh told reporters.

 

The onion export ban is affecting traders and not farmers as average mandi (wholesale) prices are ruling currently at around Rs 13-15/kg in Maharasthra, which is almost double from the previous year level, he said.

 

'Even if prices crash, we will protect the interest of farmers,' he added.

 

The secretary said the government normally buys onion for the buffer stock at a prevailing mandi rates. However if the rates fall below the cost of production, the government will ensure their cost is covered at least.

 

In 2023-24, the government had procured 6.4 lakh tonnes of onion (both rabi and kharif crops) for the buffer stock at an average rate of Rs 17 per kg. Almost entire quantity has been disposed off, he said.

 

Nidhi Khare, Officer on Special Duty in the Consumer Affairs Ministry, said the onion procurement during the last year was done in June but this year it is going to kick-start early in the next two days.

 

Two nodal cooperative agencies -- Nafed and National Cooperative Consumers'? Federation of India (NCCF) -- will undertake procurement, she said.

 

For the procurement, NAFED and NCCF are to pre-register the onion farmers to ensure that payments to the farmers are transferred to their bank accounts through Direct Benefit Transfer.

 

About the impact of likely fall in rabi onion production on retail prices, the secretary said the average retail prices are currently stable at Rs 33/kg in the country.

 

The government has chalked out an action plan to address the supply-demand gap in two ways. The government is testing improving shelf life of 1,322 tonnes of onion through radiation treatment, and secondly farmers in key growing areas will be encouraged to grow early kharif crop subject to weather conditions, he said.

 

Rabi onion production is estimated to decline by 20 per cent to 190.5 lakh tonnes in the 2023-24 season (July-June), as against 237 lakh tonnes in the year-ago period as per the agriculture ministry data.

 

Rabi onion is critical for country's onion availability as it contributes 72-75 per cent of annual production in the country. The rabi onion is also crucial for ensuring year-round availability of onion as it has better shelf life compared to Kharif (summer) onion and can be stored for supplies till November-December.

 

In a separate statement, the consumer affairs ministry said the recent decision to extend onion export prohibition has been necessitated by the overall domestic availability against the prevailing international prices and global availability concerns.

 

The government, meanwhile, has allowed exports to neighbouring countries that rely on India for their domestic consumption requirements. The government has allowed the export of onion to Bhutan (550 tonnes), Bahrain (3,000 tonnes), Mauritius (1,200 tonnes), Bangladesh (50,000 tonnes) and UAE (14,400 tonnes i.e. 3,600 tonnes/ quarter).

 

The ministry also mentioned that the continuous procurements by NAFED and NCCF have guaranteed remunerative prices for onion farmers all through the year in 2023. Subsequently, the government adopted retail sale intervention for disposal of onion at subsidized price of Rs 25 per kg last year.

 

'The timely intervention and calibrated release ensured stabilization of retail prices effectively without impacting farmer realization,' it added.

Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs in a meeting on Wednesday approved in principle a proposal of the Commerce Ministry in this regard.

 

Finance Minister Abul Hassan Mahmood Ali presided over the meeting.

 

As per the proposal, state-owned Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB), a subordinate body of the Commerce Ministry, will import the onion from Indian National Cooperative Export Limited on G-to-G basis.

 

However, the price of the onion was not disclosed in the meeting as the proposal will again come to the Cabinet Committee on Government Purchase for approval.

 

'At that time, the rate of the onion might be disclosed,' said an additional secretary of the Cabinet Division who briefed reporters about the decision.

The Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) has notified the new exchange rate for the conversion of foreign currencies into Indian currency or vice versa for imported and export goods. The new exchange rate will be applicable from March 27, 2024.

 

The notification, which supersedes Notification No. 18/2024-Customs(N.T.), dated March 7, 2024, specifies the exchange rates for various foreign currencies as per Schedule I and Schedule II annexed to the notification.

 

The notification exempts certain goods and services from the operation of the new exchange rate. These exemptions include goods and services imported or exported under a government scheme or program, goods and services imported or exported by a government department or agency, and goods and services imported or exported under a foreign trade agreement.

 

The notification further states that the exchange rate on imported and export goods will be based on the lesser of the specified conversion rate or the wholesale market price of the goods or services. The exchange rate on imported and export goods will be rounded to the nearest one-half of a percentage point.

 

The government has notified the new exchange rate for Schedule I and Schedule II of the Customs Act 1962. The new exchange rate for Schedule I and Schedule II commodities is as follows:

 

| Currency | New Exchange Rate |

|—|—|

| US Dollar | ?81.50 |

| Euro | ?89.75 |

| Japanese Yen | ?65.25 |

| Chinese Yuan Renminbi | ?12.50 |

| British Pound | ?98.75 |

| Canadian Dollar | ?63.50 |

| Australian Dollar | ?67.50 |

| New Zealand Dollar | ?69.50 |

| Singapore Dollar | ?61.50 |

| Hong Kong Dollar | ?10.50 |

| South Korean Won | ?6.50 |

| Taiwanese Dollar | ?2.50 |

 

The CBIC has advised all stakeholders to take note of the new exchange rate and to ensure compliance with the provisions of the notification.

India's buffalo meat (carabeef) production and exports are set to increase in 2024, the New Delhi Post of the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service has said. 

 

In its report for the 2024 market year (January-December), the Post estimated buffalo meat consumption at 2.97 million tonnes (mt) in 2024 against 2.92 mt in 2023. 'Indians are growing increasingly fond of consuming meat and processed meat products. The greatest receptivity for carabeef comes from more youthful consumers who are better inclined to changing dietary preferences and are more nutrition conscious,' it said. 

Earlier this month, Agriculture Minister Arjun Munda inaugurated a Krishi Integrated Command and Control Centre (ICCC) set up at Krishi Bhavan in New Delhi, a big-screen dashboard of all digital innovations in the sector. Officials described the ICCC as a 'significant leap forward' in leveraging technology for the advancement of agricultural practices.

 

What is the Krishi ICCC?

 

The ICCC is a tech-based solution involving multiple IT applications and platforms, which is designed to help in making informed decisions. The centre is housed in the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers’ Welfare, which is responsible for legislation, policy formation, and implementation of initiatives in the agriculture sector.

 

The ICCC uses state of the art technologies such as artificial intelligence, remote sensing, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to collect and process large amounts of granular data — on temperatures, rainfall, wind speed, crop yields and production estimations — and presents it in graphical format.

 

What do you get as the visual output?

 

On eight large, 55-inch LED screens installed at the ICCC, you can see information on crop yields, production, drought situation, cropping patterns (geographic region-wise and year-wise) in map, timeline, and drill-down views.

 

You can also see the relevant trends (periodic and non-periodic), outliers, and Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), and receive insights, alerts, and feedback on agriculture schemes, programmes, projects, and initiatives.

 

What is the objective of the ICCC?

 

The ICCC will enable comprehensive monitoring of the farm sector by making available at one place geospatial information received from multiple sources, including remote sensing; plot-level data received through soil survey; weather data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD); sowing data from Digital Crop Survey; farmer- and farm-related data from Krishi MApper, an application for geo-fencing and geo-tagging of land; market intelligence information from the Unified Portal for Agricultural Statistics (UPAg); and yield estimation data from the General Crop Estimation Survey (GCES).

 

The integrated visualisation of the data will enable quick and efficient decision-making by the The ICCC ecosystem can be linked with the PM-Kisan chatbot going forward.

 

Can the command and control centre generate individual farmer-specific advisories?

 

Going forward, the ICCC can create an ecosystem based on which individual farmer-level advisories can be generated through apps like Kisan e-mitra, a chatbot developed for PM-Kisan beneficiaries.

 

Explained | Why November-December, not March temperatures may decide this year’s rabi crop production

 

The AI-/ machine learning-based system will identify a farmer through his/ her mobile number or Aadhaar, and match it with the farmer’s field information obtain through land records, historical crop sowing information from the crop registry, weather data from IMD, etc. It will then generate a customised advisory in the local language of the farmer. For this, the system will use the Bhashini platform that allows translation into several Indian languages.

India banned wheat exports in May 2022 and exports of non-basmati rice in July 2023 to cater to domestic requirements

 

New Delhi: Bangladesh has sought assured annual supplies of five food commodities, including rice and wheat, from India to tackle fluctuations in market prices and shortages, people familiar with the matter said.

 

The two countries have held discussions on this issue and Dhaka has asked New Delhi to sign a memorandum of understanding on fixed quotas for these commodities, including onions, ginger and garlic, the people said on condition of anonymity.

 

However, the two sides have not yet been able to reach common ground in view of sensitivities linked to the export of such commodities, said the people aware of discussions held so far.

 

India banned wheat exports in May 2022 and exports of non-basmati rice in July 2023 to cater to domestic requirements. The government banned the export of onions for about four months last December. However, India has supplied rice, wheat and onions to countries in the neighbourhood, such as Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka, and key partners, such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Indonesia and Vietnam, on a case-to-case basis.

 

Ahead of the Islamic month of Ramzan, the government allowed the export of 50,000 tonnes of onions to Bangladesh and another 14,400 tonnes to the UAE in early March in response to requests through diplomatic channels. These were the first exports after the ban kicked in.

 

'While all the supplies have not yet reached Bangladesh through the National Cooperative Exports Ltd, the Indian government’s decision had the effect of immediately cooling prices in Bangladeshi markets, which had increased sharply since last year,' one of the people cited above said.

 

'The move to have fixed quotas for these five commodities is aimed at having some protection from export bans and ensuring uninterrupted and assured supplies every year,' the person added.

 

There was no official word from the Indian side on the request from Bangladesh, which figured in visiting Bangladesh foreign minister Hasan Mahmud’s meeting with commerce minister Piyush Goyal in New Delhi in January. Mahmud told reporters at the time he had sought additional supplies of sugar and onions in line with the Sheikh Hasina government’s focus on reducing the prices of essential commodities.

 

Bangladesh’s imports of rice from India increased from $9.7 billion in 2021-22 to $11.1 billion in 2022-23, while wheat imports were worth $2.1 billion in 2021-22 and $1.5 billion in 2022-23, according to official figures from the Indian side.

 

Imports of onions from India increased from $460.5 million in 2021-22 to $561.8 million in 2022-23, while imports of ginger fell from $93 million in 2021-22 to $35.9 million in 2022-23. Imports of garlic rose sharply from $2.9 million in 2021-22 to $11.3 million in 2022-23.

 

In 2019, India’s ban on onion exports due to soaring domestic prices had a major impact on Bangladesh. During a visit to India at the time, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina jokingly told a business forum in New Delhi in the presence of Goyal that she had asked her cook to stop using onions. She also said India should alert Bangladesh in advance about such bans.

 

Bangladesh remains one of India’s most trusted partners in the neighbourhood and the two sides have focused on increasing connectivity for trade, energy supplies and tourism. Hasina’s victory in the general election in January has also given a boost to the burgeoning ties.

Consumers will need to brace for price hikes in chocolates and also in some chocolate-containing products such as cookies and ice-creams among others due to soaring cocoa prices globally.

 

Cocoa prices, which topped $10,000 a tonne during intra-day trade on Tuesday, was quoted at $9,163 for July contacts on New York Intercontinental Exchange. Cocoa prices have more than doubled this year on as the crops in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which together make up about 60 per cent of the world’s cocoa production, have been ravaged by disease. This is the third year in a row that the global market faces deficit.

 

Jayen Mehta, MD, GCMMF (Amul), told businessline that cocoa prices in India have increased by atleast three times. 'So all of the players, who use pure chocolate and are in the consumer space, will be affected. Institutional players, who do not use pure cocoa butter and use vegetable fat, may not feel the pinch,' he stated. The company produces large volumes of chocolates and also uses it as an ingredient in ice-creams and beverages.

 

'We will need to keep taking calibrated price increases. But Amul is very competitively priced and so we are hopeful consumers will continue to stay with the brand,' Mehta said.

 

Passing gains to growers

 

'We work with Campco and are in constant dialogue with them. They are also passing on these price increases to the farmers. They are also ensuring the supplies are there,' he said.

 

A Kishore Kumar Kodgi, President, Campco, said the co-operative is a major supplier of semi-finished cocoa products such as cocoa butter and cocoa powder to some of the industrial customers. Based on the market situation, Campco revises its prices for these semi-finished products while participating in the tenders called by these industrial buyers. The industrial buyers are procuring it at the revised price, he said.

 

On the retail segment where it markets ready-to-eat finished products such as chocolates, he said as of now there is no change in the price for chocolate products in the retail markets. A decision on revision could be taken in future based on the market situation, he said.

 

A Nestle India spokesperson said, 'We are currently monitoring the situation.'

 

Hedging strategies

 

While typically companies use hedging strategies to manage price volatility in commodities, industry players said it will not be easy to fully absorb the impact of this kind of decadal-high-cost surge. 

 

Mayank Shah, Vice-President, Parle Products, said, 'There has been an unprecedented rise in cocoa prices compared to previous year. No company will be able to absorb this kind of a price hike. So over the next 1-2 months, there could be significant price hikes taken by companies that make products where cocoa is a key ingredient. We are closely monitoring the situation. We may also need to initially hike prices by 10-15 per cent over the next 1-2 months to cope with this volatility in cocoa prices.'

 

He said cocoa prices have been seeing a rise over the past year, but large players were able to use hedging strategies and future contracts to manage this volatility and not increase chocolate prices. 'But I believe the situation has now changed and they will have to pass on the cost increase to consumers,' Shah said.

 

Treble gains for growers

 

Stating that the cocoa prices are the highest in 45 years, in a Linkedin post, Shashank Mehta, Founder and CEO, The Whole Truth Foods, said the company is pausing production of milk chocolates and hiking prices of dark chocolates.

 

Increase in the price of cocoa has made farmers to focus more on this crop. Many farmers in Dakshina Kannada region grow cocoa as an intercrop in the arecanut plantations. Hariprasad P, a grower from Arantodu village in Sullia taluk of Dakshina Kannada district, Karnataka, said he has been growing cocoa as an inter-crop for the past more than three decades. Stating that he got a maximum of ?65-70 a kg for wet cocoa beans last year, Hariprasad said he sold it at ?200 a kg a day ago.

Discussions for a free-trade agreement (FTA) between India and the five-member South African Customs Union (SACU) nations may begin after the new government takes over in June, two people aware of the matter said.

The customs union includes South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Lesotho and Eswatini. 

After the Lok Sabha elections, India plans to reach out to SACU nations to launch trade talks, one of the persons cited above said.